Iran’s supreme leader in the shadows

Iran | The mystery surrounding Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is deepening. This comes as global intelligence agencies, including the CIA and Mossad, are closely monitoring his whereabouts and role in Tehran’s ongoing conflict. Since assuming power on March 9, following the killing of his father Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba has largely remained out of public view. Apart from a written Nowruz statement and a recently released video showing him teaching religious studies, he has avoided any in-person or prerecorded appearances.

In his Nowruz message on Telegram, Mojtaba called for national unity and claimed that Iran had defeated the enemy, saying: “At the moment, due to the particular unity that has been created between you, our compatriots—despite all the differences in religious, intellectual, cultural, and political origins—the enemy has been defeated.

US and Israeli attacks were based on an illusion that by killing top leaders they could cause the overthrow of the government.” He further described strikes in Turkey and Oman as part of a “scheme by the Zionist enemy” and emphasized Iran’s regional ties: “We share with neighboring countries the creed, the interests, and the confrontation against the forces of global arrogance.” The CIA is reportedly working to determine whether Mojtaba is alive, wounded, or fully exercising authority, particularly after reports that he may have been injured in the strike that killed his father, according to a report by Axios.

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Evidence such as unsuccessful attempts by Iranian officials to schedule in-person meetings with him suggests that Mojtaba remains alive but under tight security. A senior US official said, “We have no evidence that he is really the one giving orders. It’s beyond weird. We don’t think the Iranians would have chosen a dead guy as the supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof he is taking the helm.”The concern within US intelligence circles is compounded by recent targeted strikes on Iran’s senior leadership, including the assassination of security chief Ali Larijani.US and Israeli officials highlighted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now effectively managing the country, filling the power vacuum.CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Gen James Adams testified before the House Intelligence Committee that Iran is experiencing a deep command and control crisis.Israeli officials also caution that Iran’s top leaders are operating like fugitives, moving between safe houses and avoiding digital communications.Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, observed that Mojtaba may still be functioning, but injuries or security concerns could prevent him from appearing publicly or issuing recorded messages.“Under the current exceptional circumstances, one should not expect him to appear in public, and it is possible that his injury does not even allow him to release a recorded video in order not to expose to the public the severity of his condition,” Zimmt said.On Friday, during Nowruz celebrations, US and Israeli intelligence closely watched for signs of a public appearance. Instead, Mojtaba released a written message via Telegram along with a video showing him teaching religious studies to students.The CIA is reportedly analyzing these materials to determine whether they are recent and to gain insights into his current condition.A senior US official called Mojtaba’s absence a “big red flag.” “We would have expected to see Mojtaba too in some form. He didn’t take advantage of the opportunity and tradition,” the official added. Mojtaba’s continued silence leaves open questions about who is truly in command in Tehran. President Donald Trump’s national security team has repeatedly raised concerns over the leadership authority in the Iranian capital. “Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders are all gone. And the next set of leaders is mostly gone. And now, nobody wants to be leader over there anymore. We are having a hard time. We want to talk to them, but there is nobody to talk to. You know what, we like it that way,” Trump said. Israel has also indicated that regime change could be an objective of its ongoing operations.

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